Since 2006, the United Nations Security Council has imposed four rounds of sanctions against Tehran in response to Israel’s fear of Iran’s civilian nuclear program which is similar to other 45 countries signatory to NPT protocol. The idea behind these western sanctions is to create economic sufferage for ordinary Iranians so they rise against the Islamic regime. Such western expectations have failed miserably even after the current mass protests in Iran’s neighboring Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen and Syria.
There are several factors which make Islamic regime capable to stand up to the western unlawful economic manipulation. Despite anti-regime propaganda by the Zionist-controlled western mass media, a great majority of Iranian still support Ahmadinejad’s national and foreign policies. The other factors are; 1) Iran’s geographc location (it’s linked to 14 neighboring countries by land), 2) Tehran’s independent foreign policy which has made many new friends, such as, Turkey, China, Russia, Brazil, Venezuela, etc. and 3) the continue increase in country’s oil revenue.
Saeed Laylaz, an economic expert, has pointed out recently that the western sanctions could hurt Iranian in some sectors but they will never bring Iran’s economy to its knees. He cite some of the following facts to prove his prediction:
1. It is estimated that next year US will have an economic growth of about 3 percent, the UK will be at about 2 percent, China more than 10, India close to 9, and Japan nearly 2 percent. The result of these growths lead to an increase in the consumption of raw material, especially oil.
2. Statistics and surveys show that this economic growth will continue in 2011 and will become a firm infrastructure for increasing or stabilizing high oil prices globally. The value of the euro against the dollar is more stable compared to the developments in Northern Africa, and the global economic growth is even more stable compared to that; and this factor is in favor of Iran.
3. If the sanctions on Iran would include an oil embargo, they would be impossible to maintain, and if they do not include oil exports, then they will be pointless. Because currently Iran has the purchasing power of 90 billion dollars annually through selling its oil, but no one is allowed to sell any goods to it. It is obvious that no businessman can ignore these 90 billion dollars, as they already have not.
Therefore, due to many elements including the global increase in crude oil prices, sanctions are not applicable in Iran. However, if these elements are eliminated, sanctions would still not be able to bring Iran’s economy to its knees. When I gave this prediction, many criticized me but we were able to see last year that Iran’s economy is more vulnerable to domestic managerial decision-making than to any external development. Overall, it appears that in the absence of domestic mismanagement, even tougher international sanctions can not bring Iran‘s economy to its knees. These sanctions will surely damage Iran’s economy, but they are not crucial or crippling.